Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.003015 0.003316 0.003636 0.004004 0.004414 0.004859 0.005379
2026-02-08 0.002478 0.002894 0.003369 0.003953 0.004655 0.005477 0.006515
2026-02-15 0.002141 0.002603 0.003155 0.003867 0.004768 0.005878 0.007363
2026-02-22 0.001944 0.002441 0.003058 0.003885 0.004978 0.006386 0.008361
2026-03-01 0.001827 0.002359 0.003042 0.003990 0.005291 0.007035 0.009591
2026-03-08 0.001666 0.002203 0.002910 0.003922 0.005355 0.007344 0.010372
2026-03-15 0.001528 0.002064 0.002785 0.003846 0.005392 0.007607 0.011096
2026-03-22 0.001426 0.001964 0.002705 0.003821 0.005494 0.007962 0.011983
2026-03-29 0.001358 0.001904 0.002675 0.003864 0.005692 0.008470 0.013147
2026-04-05 0.001268 0.001807 0.002583 0.003804 0.005727 0.008725 0.013925
2026-04-12 0.001193 0.001727 0.002508 0.003764 0.005786 0.009019 0.014788
2026-04-19 0.001123 0.001648 0.002430 0.003710 0.005817 0.009264 0.015586
2026-04-26 0.001070 0.001595 0.002392 0.003723 0.005966 0.009733 0.016859
2026-05-03 0.001007 0.001523 0.002319 0.003676 0.006012 0.010036 0.017872
2026-05-10 0.000943 0.001445 0.002232 0.003596 0.005995 0.010223 0.018682
2026-05-17 0.000904 0.001406 0.002204 0.003614 0.006147 0.010722 0.020149
2026-05-24 0.000885 0.001395 0.002221 0.003710 0.006447 0.011520 0.022303
2026-05-31 0.000837 0.001334 0.002152 0.003648 0.006449 0.011753 0.023320
2026-06-07 0.000791 0.001275 0.002081 0.003578 0.006430 0.011941 0.024260
2026-06-14 0.000757 0.001234 0.002038 0.003555 0.006499 0.012308 0.025630
2026-06-21 0.000735 0.001212 0.002029 0.003593 0.006689 0.012938 0.027668
2026-06-28 0.000700 0.001166 0.001972 0.003538 0.006688 0.013169 0.028809
2026-07-05 0.000670 0.001127 0.001926 0.003502 0.006721 0.013473 0.030162